The 84th Academy Awards - Predictions

The nominations for the 2012 Oscars were announced today and I have decided, perhaps stupidly, to put my predictions to paper. I would like to include a massive disclaimer before I do so; for various reasons I have yet to see many of the films nominated. Should make for interesting reflection come February 26th.

Best Picture

"The Artist"

"The Descendants"

"Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"

"Hugo"

"Midnight in Paris"

"The Help"

"Moneyball"

"War Horse"

"The Tree of Life"

Winner: “The Artist”

There’s no real standout favorite for me this year. In saying that The Artist has been getting a lot of early awards and high praise from critics. It appears to be the forerunner in most peoples eyes and I have to agree. It’s tribute to old Hollywood will go down well with The Academy. 

Best Actor

Demian Bichir, "A Better Life"

George Clooney, "The Descendants"

Jean Dujardin, "The Artist"

Gary Oldman, "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"

Brad Pitt, "Moneyball"

Winner: George Clooney, “The Descendants”

Even the trailer for this film is incredibly moving and Clooney by all accounts is on excellent form. I can’t see Oldman or Pitt taking it although it’s good to see them both nominated. I must confess I have no idea who Demian Bichir is and I know little about A Better Life. Jean Dujardin will be gorgeous George’s biggest threat.

Best Actress

Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs"

Viola Davis, "The Help"

Rooney Mara, "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo"

Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady"

Michelle Williams, "My Week With Marilyn"

Winner: Viola Davis, “The Help”

I can’t call this one. I almost went for Meryl Streep but the Yanks won’t be as familiar with the source material and I think that ignorance might be enough for her to miss out. Plus a 16 - 2 nomination to win record going into this years event is not great form. I would love Rooney Mara to take the prize but anyone involved in the A Nightmare on Elm Street remake should never get an Oscar. So I am going for Viola Davis to become only the second African-American woman to take home the best actress award.

Best Director

Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"

Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"

Terrence Malick, "The Tree of Life"

Alexander Payne, "The Descendants"

Martin Scorsese, "Hugo"

Winner: Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"

This kind of picked itself. More often than not the director of the best picture takes home the Oscar. This isn’t always the case and there’s an argument to be made for all the nominees. Scorsese’s direction in his love letter to film will be thought of highly and I think Terrence Malick will stand a good shot but I have to go with the most likely winner.

Best Original Screenplay

Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"

JC Chandor, "Margin Call"

Asghar Farhadi, "A Separation"

Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"

Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, "Bridesmaids"

Winner: JC Chandor, "Margin Call"

Probably more in hope than expectation Margin Call couldn’t be more topical if it tried and manages to humanize the so reviled investment bankers and create a taut thriller in the process. Bridesmades, whilst one of the years more enjoyable comedies, doesn’t deserve to be here. 

Best Achievement in Cinematography

"The Artist"

"The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo"

"Hugo"

"The Tree of Life"

"War Horse"

Winner: “Hugo”

I’ve not seen it yet and am going on word of mouth but with 11 nominations it’s bound to win something.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects

"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2"

"Hugo"

"Real Steel"

"Rise of the Planet of the Apes"

"Transformers: Dark of the Moon"

Winner: “Rise of the Planet of the Apes”

Wild guess using the following logic: Harry Potter is now old news and doesn’t really break any new ground. Real Steel and Transformers are essentially the same effects. Hugo could win but everyone loves monkeys and Rise will be the stuffy critics guilty pleasure this year.

All will be revealed in roughly a month from now. Until then feel free to share your predictions.

Feature: What to do with a $90,000,000 tattoo?

You have to give it to Sony, they have some balls. Some may call it audacious, others just misguided confidence. But you can’t deny it takes some self certainty to adapt source material read and loved by thirty million people, already released as one of the most successful foreign language films of recent years, give it an estimated $90,000,000 budget and expect to see that, and then some, come back in.

Don’t get me wrong I applaud their typical American audacity and love what they have done with the film. David Finchers re-imagining of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011) for me, was the perfect post-Christmas tonic to the joy and goodwill of the festive season. Despite a bum numbing run time the story focuses on the more interesting parts of Steig Larsson’s novel to create a compelling and brutal ‘who dunnit?’.  

Nevertheless it’s no secret that Dragon Tattoo has struggled to gain traction at the domestic and international box offices. At a current worldwide haul of $108,000,000 after 3 weeks of release it will need to go some to recoup it’s outgoings when distribution and marketing costs are factored in. There are fears now that plans to follow up with The Girl Who Played with Fire may be on the shelf and it’s lackluster performance will certainly make studios think twice about allocating such budgets to R rated material in the future.

It’s funny because on paper you would expect Dragon Tattoo to have kicked off a lucrative trilogy with Sony continuing to develop US re-imaginings of the Millennium Series. Let’s be frank, best-selling novels with franchise prospects have set the box office alight in recent times, Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter are two obvious examples, with The Da Vinci Code and Angels & Demons, perhaps more comparable in terms of target audience, also grossing well in excess of a $1 Billion between them.

So where have things gone wrong, it’s certainly not due to the quality of the film, so what else has affected it’s performance? It’s proximity to the original Swedish version won’t have helped, there’s a loyal fan base for that film who won’t have had much time for this version and Hollywoods continuous ignorance and disregard towards foreign language cinema. 

A huge market of disposable cash hoarding teens will have also been denied access should they have had any penchant for watching a movie featuring chrome dildos and incest. Most of all though, and perhaps where the studio had the biggest balls off all was in the scheduling. A Christmas movie this was not.

Any chance Dragon Tattoo had of being a commercial success was pole-axed by poor placement in the middle of the festive period. Despite the presence of snow this film has nothing in common with Santa Claus. 

The 2011 holiday season was also unfortunate for Sony as they saw Dragon Tattoo going head to head with some stiff competition; Mission Impossible - Ghost Protocol, Sherlock Holmes: a Game of Shadows and Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked (which somehow continues to rake it in as annoying children convince their parents to take them to watch even more annoying chipmunks).   

What do the three afore mentioned films all have in common, other than being established franchise fare with pre-existing fan bases perfectly positioned for all the family to enjoy? Well not a lot else, but you get my point...Dragon Tattoo did’t stand a chance.

I would love to know if Sony were in a position to release over Halloween. I would be pretty confident that if they had done they may be feeling slightly more positive about the situation. I would hazard a guess the execs are probably thinking the same thing.

So where do Daniel Craig’s Blomkvist and Rooney Maras Salander go from here. After completion of its theatrical run and when DVD and Blu-Ray sales are taken into account the film should make a slight profit. Which is commendable for such expenditure on a movie with such a limited market. This, according to Entertainment Weekly, appears to be enough to convince Sony to go ahead with the sequel, The Girl Who Played with Fire.

Whether Fincher will be behind the camera is still open for discussion however. If he has things his way they will shoot both sequels back to back. Somehow though he doesn’t strike me as a trilogy man and although he would be my preferred choice to continue with series I am not certain he will. 

What will be more interesting is whether Sony learn from their mistakes and pick a better weekend to open the next movie on. My guess as to when we’ll see Lisbeth Salander back on the big screen: Halloween 2013. Let’s hope it’s in all the R rated glory of Dragon Tattoo.

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - 4.5/5